Vote Barack Obama
On this Monday before Election Day, I will spend my day like so many others this past month, canvassing neighborhoods to persuade undecided voters, and knocking on doors to get out the vote. Thanks to similar efforts of tens of thousands of other field organizers and more than 1.5 million volunteers nationwide, Senator Barack Obama will be elected to as the 44th president of the United States.
I predict it will be a sweeping electoral victory of 356 electoral votes, including southern states like Virginia and North Carolina that have not voted a Democrat into the White House since the 1968 and 1976 respectively. He will win by small margins in Ohio and Florida, and also take Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and North Dakota. He will also win convincingly in every state John Kerry won in 2004. I believe he will finish with a 4.5% popular vote margin.
The OhioSuprise Electoral Prediction. Map courtesy of realclearpolitics.com.
The major networks will probably be cautious; they are still reeling from their mistakes in 2000. But whenever they are ready to declare Barack Obama the winner of Virginia (most likely 7:00 p.m., as soon as polls close) I will be ready to call the election for Barack Obama.
While Sen. Obama’s victory will not be be a landslide on the scale of Nixon in 1972 or Reagan in 1980, it will be more profound. The political divisions in the United States have grown more bitter and more deeply entrenched in the past two decades. Barack Obama, as the first black president of the United States is poised to be a transformational leader who can unify the county and bring important changes to the economy, health care, energy, education, and foreign affairs.
This has been a long, personal, journey. On September 11, 2001, I lived in a loft just five blocks north of the World Trade Center. I witnessed the attacks firsthand and fled my home as the towers fell. I supported my country’s invasion in to Afghanistan the following month to overthrow the Taliban, who had harbored those people who attacked us.
But I opposed President George W. Bush as he set his sights on Iraq. I believed it would embroil us in an open ended conflict, with an enormous financial and human cost. I watched as our president recklessly squandered a tremendous opportunity to harness the world’s support to elevate America’s leadership in the world.
In October 2002 a little know Illinois state senator, Barack Obama, courageously spoke out against the impending war in an eloquent speech that would later help define his political ascendancy. Some critics dismiss this, claiming he was not really risking anything since he was not yet in the Federal government.
But they are missing the mark, and ignoring the historical context. While seemingly every political figure, including Hillary Clinton, was lining up behind President Bush’s war, Barack Obama stood against it. His position was not rooted in some universal anti-war ideology. Rather, it was based on his judgment that it would harm this country’s long-term strategic interests.
That speech really got my attention. And so I was thrilled when he ran for the United States Senate in 2004 and have been touting him as the future of the Democratic party ever since. So imagine my excitement when in July 2007, I had the opportunity to meet Sen. Obama at a small fundraiser in Brooklyn.
At the meet-and-greet, we spoke briefly about my cousin who was an elementary schoolmate in Hawaii, and I shared my 9/11 story with him. I told him I planned to raise a little money and do a lot of volunteer work on the ground especially toward the last few months of the election. He thanked me. But then I said, “there’s one thing I want to ask of you, Senator.” He asked what that was. I said “Win.” He gave me the big Barack Obama smile and promised to do his best. We’ve each kept up our ends of the bargain.
So here I am in Cincinnati with just 36 hours to go. There’s a lot of work to do today. In addition to the daytime canvasses, I plan to head out late tonight to participate in the quadrennial removal of dirty tricks literature (“All Democrats Vote Wednesday”) from the poor and minority neighborhoods where it always appears on the eve of Election Day.
I encourage everyone to join me by making some calls and knocking on some doors today in support of this campaign. But the most important thing you can do, no matter in which state you live, is vote for Barack Obama. And while you’re at it, please take some friends and family with you.
Tax Cuts
Barack Obama promises tax cuts for 98% of small businesses and 99.9% of plumbers.
Barack Obama Takes the Stage
Barack Obama takes the stage before 22,000 supporters in Cincinnati. This completed his full day visit to Ohio’s three biggest cities.
Tomorrow, the last day of campaigning, will feature stops in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.
My crew, including old wood savant Alan Solomon and Texan Beth Brindson spent the day in Appalachia canvassing.
We pursuaded at least one 20-year-old to vote. She prefers Obama but believed her vote wouldn’t make a difference. Beth convinced her otherwise, and will call her Tuesday morning to seal the deal.
One Third
We are one third filled. The crowd is starting to do the wave. The mayor of Cincinnati and governor of Ohio have arrived.
Maureen Tracey-Mooney, the Cincinnati regional field director fires up the crowd.
Rock Rock Obama
The Hamilton Board of Elections is open for early voting on Saturday from eight o’clock until noon. By the time Bob and I arrived just after nine o’clock yesterday, the three hour, 400-person line wrapped around three full city blocks.
I phoned in this information into headquarters, who them placed a giant breakfast order with a local Burger King. Meanwhile Bob and I distributed water, early vote stickers, Sportsmen for Obama pins (that’s all that was left at the campaign) and bumper stickers.
By eleven o’clock, the line had increased to about 600 people. Bob took advantage of the post Halloween candy sales and picked up two large bags of treats. We passed them out asking who was “hungry for change?” I also announced to the crowd “Whether Democrat, Republican, or independent, we can all agree that Snickers bars are delicious.”
I personally invited everyone in line to come here Barack Obama speak on Sunday, November 2 at Nipper Stadium at the University of Cincinnati. Doors open at 6:00 p.m. (You, blog reader, are also invited.)
Bob also trotted out his newly created campaign chant: Barack Obama, rock rock Obama. The crowd joined in. It’s not normally possible to rev up a crowd waiting to vote, because of partisan mix. But the crowd that was voting at the Board of Elections was, once again, mostly black and at least 90% Democratic leaning.
Our job was to keep people on line. We know we lose most of the votes when people don’t stay. But on this day, for this candidate, our job was pretty easy. The crowd was fired up and determined to stay. Some people waited close to five hours to vote.
Later that evening, in a brief conference call with thousands of campaign staff nationwide, Sen. Obama emphasized the importance of keeping people’s spirits up while they were waiting to vote. We expect long lines, and so it’s vitally important that we keep folks engaged in the voting process.
The Obama campaign has placed a premium on participation and civic engagement. It’s not just rhetoric (as it seemed with Kerry) or a tactic designed to ratchet up the volunteer numbers. It stems from Obama’s core belief that empowering and including people in the process makes for a better, stronger, more vibrant campaign.
That’s what you get when you elect a community organizer. Now imagine these same principles genuinely applied to governance.
Inadvertent Disenfranchisement
On Friday morning, I was joined by my friend Bob Weidman, guitar player in my college band Aesthetic Pig, longtime Aaron Consulting employee, and jaded left-leaning political prognosticator. Bob worked with me in Cincinnati on the failed 2004 presidential election. Bob drove down from Minnesota to help us make up for our failure to turn Hamilton County and Ohio in the last election.
We picked up Ina, a 62-year-old voter in the morning and brought her to the Board of Elections to vote. On that day, the two-hour, 200-person line wrapped around the corner. Ina’s heart condition prevented her from standing for that long, so she was able to vote immediately.
Overall the process was orderly, nobody left the line, and the board of elections checked people in pretty efficiently. However, in the afternoon, Board of Elections staffers began walking the line and asking people of they changed their address since they registered.
Those people who answered affirmatively were directed to a different line once they got in and would be made to cast a provisional ballot. Those ballots wouldn’t be counted until well after election day, and are often subject to challenges. A New York Times piece the came out that very day describes in detail how Ohio pushes a much greater percentage of voters to provisional ballots than other states.
The staffers were just tying to be more efficient, but by confronting people with this question they were, in some cases, creating unnecessary provisional ballots. Students sometimes register at home but provided a school address. Others were moving shortly after they registered or voted (3 couples reported they were moving on the weekend). Still others had moved in the past year but couldn’t remember where they registered, so they just said yes. In about 20 minutes a dozen voters were made to cast provisional ballots.
I conferred with the election protection lawyer and arranged an impromptu meeting with the Board of Elections administrator, who is a very competent and reasonable man. After a brief discussion, he was persuaded to have his staff stand down. That resolved the issue, at least for that day.
This is a good illustration how even well-meaning staffers can make decisions that inadvertently disenfranchise voters. Imagine how much worse it can get when supporters of one party actively work to create problems for voters.
In all more than 2,100 people voted early that day. The total number in Hamilton county is in excess of 20,000 so far. Combined with the returned absentee ballots, we now have 100,000 votes, 20% of the total ballots cast in 2004. The absentee ballots are 60% Democrats so far. Based on the overwhelming support on the line (at least 90%) I project that we are likely 22,500 votes ahead in Hamilton County. In 2004, George W. Bush took Hamilton by 22,937 votes. Clearly this is an excellent start.
Thirsty for Change
Just like she told me, Bernice, an 86-year-old retired teacher, was waiting outside her green shuttered single-family house in suburban Cincinnati. She had not received her thrice-requested absentee ballot (she walks slowly with some difficulty), and with the deadline looming I offered her a ride to vote early.
Bernice, who as a black girl growing up in Montgomery, Alabama, worked in the cotton fields, told me about her faith in God as we drove downtown. She also told me that she had sat out the last election and hadn’t really been excited about a candidate since the campaign of Robert Kennedy.
This time would be different. When we arrived at the Board of Elections, the line snaked out the building and two blocks down the street. I took Bernice to the front of the line and the staffers got her situated in a chair and helped her with her ballot. That would take some 45 minutes.
Meanwhile, I had been asked by the campaign to work the line, ensuring that people who are there to vote for Barack Obama stay and vote. The line was about an hour long, and a lot of people were taking time off from work. If they leave the line there’s a real possibility that we will lose their vote.
So I brought them water, asking “who is thirsty for change?” Schtick is important when working the line. You want people to have fun, though in this case everybody seemed to be in good spirits. The line had no defectors.
I also handed out “I voted early for Barack Obama stickers whcih were accepted by 90% of the approximately 300 people I talked to that day. And, most important, I signed up volunteers for the critical get-out-the-vote effort offering free pins and the strangely hard-to-find bumper stickers as incentives.
The early voting at Hamilton County is not be representative of overall voting. The Board of Education is located downtown where many minority and lower income people live and work. People in more Republican leaning suburban areas of the city are used to voting at their polling places and are waiting for Election Day.
Still, it’s a sight to see in Hamilton County: hundreds of fired up voters supporting the Democratic standard-bearer, and some uncomfortable Republicans. I did meet one pair of friends who were waiting in line to cancel each other’s vote. They showed affection and good humor to one another. I told the Obama supporter she had about 30 minutes left in line, and should use all of it to persuade her friend to join the winning team. And I offered him a button, which he refused with a smile.
Tune in later today for photos and updates from the line.
Frampton Comes Alive!
Barack Obama has a campaign that is running smoothly at every level, from the perfect pitch of yesterday’s campaign infomercial to the urgent calm here at street level in the Cincinnati office. It sure does help to be winning.
Outside the Obama office, previously a storefront pharmacy, were several large boxes surrounded by teams of volunteers working at curbside. Inside those boxes were 30,000 thin metal bars, the skeletons of lawn signs soon to be born.
I donned some protective gloves and got to work bundling the bars in manageable packages of ten and twenty apiece, perfecting a method of accurately estimating the count and then evening out the bundle using the bended ends as guides. I then asked a volunteer to do nothing but tape the bundles as quickly as I could produce them. (Thank you Henry Ford!)
My bundle taper was a local man in his fifties who came out to the very first Obama organizing meeting in Cincinnati. This was back in the middle of 2007, well before things started heating up. He had been involved in ballot initiatives and electoral politics for years, and was expecting a few dozen diehards to show up. The crowd swelled to about 600.
After we finished, I headed inside as phone bankers making another round of ballot-chase calls. I was handed a culled list of about 30 voters who had not received their ballots, or who had not ordered them. I called through the list and made appointments with four ladies, all in their eighties, who really needed to get those ballots because they were unable to get themselves to their polling place.
But another lady was too sick to leave the house, and hadn’t yet applied for a ballot, and time is running out. By law, all absentee ballots are mailed to the address on file and must be returned postmarked by election day.
So I called the Board of Elections and got some surprising results. First, my call was answered right away. Second, the woman I spoke to told me to leave a message for Patricia, who was in charge of elderly and nursing home voters. Third, Patricia called me back within the hour and arranged to have a duly authorized poll worker drive out the voter’s home the following day to allow her to vote early.
Patricia called me back later to confirm everything was all arranged, and we chatted about the importance of giving sick and elderly voters extra help to vote. I told her I would serve as the point person for any elderly Hamilton county person who needed a ride. The Obama campaign has a statewide hotline for voters who need rides on election day, but I figured it would be good for the board of elections to have a local point person.
In a time where election officials are routinely attacked (sometimes deservedly) for their handling of an election, I have nothing but praise so far for the Hamilton Board of Elections.
As I left the campaign office for the evening, it was reported to me that earlier in the afternoon we had a visit from Cincinnati transplant Peter Frampton, who was coming by to pick up a few of the recently-assembled yard signs.
Ohio Surprise 